Future of the WTO

There is a need to assess the key developments in the Doha Round, which have contributed to the present stalemate. At the same time, it is imperative to identify options that the organisation could consider for defining its future work programme, given the new realities of global economic engagement. Since the Doha Round negotiations began, the drivers of economic integration have undergone significant changes. Recognition of global production networks as the harbinger of deepening economic integration between countries is the most prominent of them. An exercise of this nature is important, since it helps in analysing the issues on which agreement has eluded the WTO Members. Looking at the WTO rules that can support the new reality of the global production networks is one of the other thrust areas that RIS focuses on within the board ambit of WTO’s future profiles.

Post-2015 Global Development Agenda

The targets laid down under MDGs have to be met by 2015 and as that date nears, a variety of organisations, not to speak of UN agencies, have got involved in monitoring their progress. Another reason why MDGs are making news is centred on a debate whether the global community should buy into a post-2015 development compact comprising another set of goals. RIS has been working intensively on this issue. This work received an impetus when the UNDP requested the institute to coordinate the discussion among the think-tanks of the country as a part of the national process to obtain feedback from the major stakeholders. This task has successfully been accomplished and based on the feedback received from the think-tanks, RIS has submitted a paper to the UNDP which is part of the UNDP’s National Consultation Report Post 2015 Development Framework: India.

Global Economic Crisis, International Financial Institutions and G-20

This study aims at understanding the genesis of the economic crisis of 2008. Apart from analysing the nature and causes of the crisis, the research focuses on the reform of the international financial institutions and the responses of the G-20. A critical analysis of the ongoing initiatives to bring out certain policy suggestions is an integral part of this research. A part of the research is being used in one of the chapters of the forthcoming South Asia Development and Cooperation Report of the RIS. Some preliminary and basic research has been shared in various RIS workshops.

International Aid Architecture and Development Cooperation Approaches

RIS has initiated work programme in this area to collect field level details to analyse data and information so as to undertake impact assessment. However, data and information on the contributions that several administrative ministries are making in the development programmes of several developing countries are not readily available This exercise also involves a detailed analysis that would focus on two sets of issues: (i) effectiveness of the India’s development assistance from the point of view of the donors; and (ii) measures that may be required for enhancing effectiveness of India’s assistance for development. The findings would be out in form of a book and series of monograph under the RIS Discussion paper series. A discussion paper on‘Balancing State and Community Participation in Development Partnership Projects: Emerging Evidence from Indian SDPs in Nepal’ has been brought out.

Post Busan Dynamics of South-South Cooperation

South-South Cooperation (SSC) has gained prominence in discussions on international cooperation for development and thus the expectations from SSC have multiplied several times. It is in this context that RIS has initiated a major work programme for supporting policy formulation process in the post Busan context and partnered with several different agencies. The current work is focusing on various facets of SSC as it promotes the exchange of best practices and support among developing countries in the common pursuit of their broad development objectives. RIS worked closely with The Asia Foundation (TAF) and the World Bank for two major conferences on this theme where more than 30 countries participated.RIS provided inputs for the International Development Cooperation Report (IDCR) on new dynamics of SSC. RIS, along with UNDESA and Ministry of External Affairs, had also organised a Conference of Southern Providers on South-South Cooperation: Issues and Emerging Challenges.

Global Ethics in Science and Technolgy

Global Ethics in Science and Technology is a three year (2011-2014) project funded by the European Commission. RIS is a partner institution in this project. The other institutions are University of Central Lancashire, Rathenau Institut, KIT and CASTED. The project envisages comparative study of Ethics in S&T policy in the three regions (Europe, China and India) and three case studies (nanotechnology, synthetic biology and food technologies). Brazil and South Africa are special invitees. The idea of ethics in this project stands for access, equity and inclusion (AEI). This project has opened up new avenues for RIS to work on S&T and Innovation and Ethics issues. RIS is exploring the opportunities for future work in these. Although the project was on Global Ethics, RIS team brought a new dimension to the debate on Global Ethics in S&T by specifying Access, Inclusion and Equity as norm and criteria to assess Ethics in policies and outcomes. This project enabled RIS to strengthen its connection with individuals and institutions working on STI issues in India.

Global Ethics in Science and Technology Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS) has become an area of increasing global debate within the World Health Organisation (WHO), the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) and the World Trade Organisation (WTO). ABS has become one of the main issues of contention with regard to the WTO’s Trade-related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) agreement, creating a state of incompatibility between TRIPS and the objectives of the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD). RIS has worked on the ABS regime for human genetics. The area of human genetic resources lacks any such binding of international regulations on benefit sharing. Benefit sharing frameworks which are currently used to justify human genetic research in developing countries are often ethically questionable. There is a real need to re-evaluate existing frameworks and suggest realistic alternatives.

Plurilateral Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) at WTO: Implications for India

The Trade in Services Agreement (TISA), initiated by the United States and Australia, is currently being negotiated in WTO with 50 participants that represent 70 per cent of the world’s trade in services. The RIS study is examining the implications of it for India. It probes into the question whether India’s joining a plurilateral regime under TISA would undermine the multilateral system. What could be the best strategy to ensure India’s export interests in various areas of services trade including IT, Audio-Visual Services,etc? Most importantly, what would be the best route of negotiations which would get India greater and effective flexibility under Mode IV of Temporary Movement of Natural Persons?

Trade and Investment Prospects of the IOR-ARC in the New Millennium: New Economic Frontiers of the Region

Since its inception in 1997 the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IOR-ARC) underwent comprehensive changes in terms of trade, investment, diplomatic engagements, people-to-people contact and cultural exchanges. against this backdrop, it was considered imperative to undertake this study in continuation of the RIS’ ongoing research programme on Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC). The study came up with 10-point recommendations for promoting economic integration that range from trade facilitation, harmonising regulations, global value chains, sectoral cooperation, etc., among others which was subsequently referred to the Trade and Investment committee of IOR-ARC to examine feasibility of their implementation.

Regional Cooperation for Infrastructure Development: Towards an Institutional Framework for Investment in the IOR-ARC

IOR-ARC represents a heterogeneous group of countries that are characterised by varying levels of access to infrastructure and its use for promotion of regional trade and investment. In view of this unequal and asymmetric stock of physical infrastructure in the member countries, this study was undertaken by RIS with funding from the Council of Ministers of IOR-ARC. The study was based on the premise that infrastructure development is pivotal to strengthen the ongoing regional process of economic integration. While doing so, emphasis was given to the role and importance of infrastructure investments. The objectives of the study was: (a) to assess and analyse the role of infrastructure in regional integration, (b) to examine policies of the member countries on infrastructure development, and (c) to devise a regional institutional framework for infrastructure development in IOR-ARC with respect to identification of priority sectors, project conception and design, sources and modes of project financing,and implementation and governance issues. Based on best practices in the EU, Asia and Latin America, the study delineates a pyramidal institutional structure for infrastructure development in the IOR-ARC with special emphasis on smooth flows of investments into the priority infrastructure sectors.

Economic Aspects of Fisheries: A Framework for Regional Cooperation in the IOR-ARC

Fishery is a major economic sector for the member countries of the IOR-ARC providing income and livelihood security to millions in the region. It has been identified as one of the priority sectors for regional cooperation in the IOR-ARC Charter. Against this backdrop, this RIS study, the first of its kind for the IOR-ARC, aims to contribute to the existing understanding in the region on the economic aspects of fisheries and integrate the role of fisheries to livelihood, nutrition and the economies of the member countries at large. The study involves four major components: (a) analysis of secondary data on fisheries to identify trends and patterns in regional fisheries production, consumption and trade, (b) examining the issues of livelihood, nutrition and food security, (c) examine and suggest policies with respect to sustainable fishing, harmonisation of rules and regulations on licensing, participation of foreign fishers, overfishing, etc., and (d) present a framework for regional cooperation among the Member countries to optimise conservation of aqua species and livelihood security of people in the region.

Prospect of Promoting Regional Value Chain in South Asia

In South Asia, regional value chain has been weak though several regional countries are engaged in Global Value Chain (GVC) in number of sectors. India is already into GVC in the production and export activities in textiles and apparel and auto component sectors. Some of the local firms in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are into the Global Production Network (GPN) in apparel sector. Similarly, Nepal and Pakistan are also into other GVC sectors. The region has the potential to integrate itself with several GVCs, particularly competitive sectors like textiles and apparels, leather, food processing, automobiles, pharmaceuticals and traditional medicines, cement, IT software, etc. Some of these sectors have received attention from certain national governments in liberalising sectoral policies to facilitate the RVC process. For the main study, several country studies were launched, covering numerous sectors including various dimensions of RVC to present potentials of the RVC in South Asia. The sectors considered under the RIS study are:(a) readymade garments (b) automobile (c) processed food (d) parts and components and (e) leather. For understanding importance of the sectors in RVC, we launched similar sectoral studies in India and several other countries in South Asia. The study was conducted with support of lead institutes from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and India. It follows from the outcome of the study that the regional economies are already engaged in global value chain in diversified sectors. However, scale of operation in most of these sectors has been low and final assembling of product is taking place in other regions of the world. South Asia has strong potential to promote RVC activities in several sectors. The study is sponsored by ADB,and the draft report is submitted.

Issues before IBSA

India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) Summit is expected to be hosted by India in the forthcoming year. RIS proposes to undertake four major studies cross-cutting different sectors focusing on trade and investment linkages among IBSA countries and their linkages with the rest of the South; overview of IBSA experiences at various global negotiations in the realm of trade, intellectual property and traditional knowledge system; protection of biodiversity; social sector experiences and lessons; and finally study of potential for cooperation in the fields of science and technology among IBSA countries. Some of these would have serious implications for access to medicine in the country and in other developing countries.

India-China Bilateral Trade Relationship

The study finds several important results, that have significant policy implications. India’s bilateral export is less diversified than its imports from China and this is partly due to India’s inability to materialise its existing export potential in diversified sectors, mostly in manufacturing exports. Several export products of India, having global competitiveness, have been unsuccessful to achieve market access in China despite having strong ‘trade creating’ effects. India bilateral trade deficit can be pruned significantly by suspending wistful uncompetitive imports from China. India can meet large Chinese global import demand in several sectors. In that case, India needs to make tailor-made export-oriented production to access Chinese market in five resource-based and technology-intensive sectors. In the trade policy liberalisation, India has made significant headway in liberalising its manufacturing sectors where India is becoming more liberal than China in the manufacturing sector, which is considered stronghold of China. Econometric models suggest that yuan depreciation has significant effects on India’s exports in terms of making market access in third countries. Rapprochement with China would benefit India from the RCEP process to the extent of $ 75.4 billion per annum though the RCEP is likely to gain to the extent of $ 502.8 billion perannum.The study was funded by the Reserve Bank of India. The final study was accepted by RBI and is posted on its website

Expanding Trade and Investment Linkages between India and Africa: Towards a New Strategic Economic Partnership

India emerged as a vibrant economy before the onset of global financial crisis and the onset of global recession had an adverse effect on the growth prospects of the Indian economy by constraining its export sector. After a prolonged period of slumps in the global economy, several African countries have gradually returned to comfort zone in recent years. In this context, multi-layered engagement of India with these vibrant trading partners may facilitate speedy recovery of Indian trade. It may be recalled that the regionalism has been taking the driving seat following failure of the multilateralism to steer the global trading system. India’s renewed focus on regionalism has contributed to its rising share of hightech products in exports, leading to change in the composition of its exports, moving gradually awayfrom primary and resource-based exports to more technology-intensive sectors. Simultaneously, India is looking for alternative arrangements to diversify its growing export sector through the regional process.Indian exports are becoming more technology intensive through regionalism than the normal process of trade. Such structural change in the export sector has picked up fast through the regional process during the past decade. These developments suggest that India’s future engagement with regionalism could be worthwhile but with a selected set of RTAs. Since African economies are emerging and recovering speedily from recession, India’s engagement with these economies could lend support to its efforts to achieve early recovery from the present global impasse. The study is to focus on normalisation of trade engagement of African states with India by reducing trade gaps at the bilateral level; examining trade opportunities existing in the region; exploring the nature of protectionism in African countries; identifying and prioritising selected countries and RTAs for improving India’s market access in the continent, among others. Economic Interest of India to Consider Joining Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement in the presence of RCEP and TIPP India has been pursuing the policy of regionalism since the 1970s although country’s support for multilateralism has been undisputed. During the past four decades, India has been engaged with number of regional trading arrangements which are at different stages of negotiations, but efficacy of these regional groupings is under scrutiny for minimising the risk of over exposure of the external sector. The 21st century mega RTAs like TPP, TTIP and RCEP are likely to dominate the global trading system in future and the TPP has already subsumed seven Members of the RCEP and a few of them have shown interest to join the caucus. The TPP is the 21st century RTA which has a stringent agenda of undertaking sweeping reforms in the Member countries. India is already a Member of the RCEP and many countries from the grouping including India, China, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, etc., are yet to join the TPP. Joining of China in the TPP is a most important consideration for the grouping since the hidden objective of the TPP is to limit the expansion of Chinese trade and political influence in the Global economy. In this situation India joining the TPP means critical for the country as it has to undertake enormous countrywide reforms to be part of the grouping. At the same time, India has to take the risk of losing large trade opportunities if not joining the mega regional caucus. Timing of joining and loss of trade opportunities are empirical questions which the study would examine for complementing the policy making process.

Chinese Trade Engagement with South Asia: Implications for the Regional Economies

South Asia has emerged as a vibrant region in the world economy during the past decade, with external sector as the driver of growth for most of the regional economies. This has attracted the global interest for trade and investment with the region including China among others. As an immediate neighbouring country, Chinese engagement with South Asia has been impressive during the last decade. China is deeply engaged with the South Asian regional economies, particularly more with exports than imports, leading to widening of trade gap with many economies. With many of them, China has emerged as the most important partner in recent years. Empirical evidences suggest that large number of products, exported by China to India, are not competitive as compared to many other competitive foreign suppliers in the domestic economy, because of numerous trade strategies adopted by Chinese exporters supported by their state. Chinese exports and imports are more becoming more technology intensive in nature. China is seizing the export opportunities, which are created for the regional economies and losses of such trade opportunities meant for the South Asian regional economies are putting pressure on intra-regional trade to grow. China’s aggressive exports to the region is a natural phenomenon as the country has entered into the bracket of upper middle income group, reaching the threshold of losing global competitiveness in diversified sectors on the face of rising domestic wage rates and depletion of domestic reserve of natural resources. The study would examine empirically these broad issues in the context of China’s growing economic engagement with the South Asian region.

Expanding Investment Cooperation in South Asia: Feasibility OFDI from the Region

The South Asian region has strong potential to grow, but it has been unable to optimise its growth potential due to its inability to attract sizable FDI. The region is not only a recipient of FDI but also engaged in OFDI. Mobilisation of FDI within the region may help the region in its endeavour to move from shallow to deep integration in a reasonable timeframe. There is a need for a comprehensive regional approach toward balanced flow of FDI in the region considering the investment potential in the region for industrial restructuring. Recent studies show that the region has large potential in Regional Value Chain (RVC) in diversified sectors. Building new institutional set up, particularly South Asia Investment Area could promote production integration. Intra-regional investment (IRI) flow has been very low as compared to several other regional groupings in Asia. The study is to examine the reasons for the low FDI flows to the region; to estimate levels of IRI for number of comparable RTAs over a period of time;to explore the reasons for low Indian OFDI to the region and suggest measures to improve investment climate in the region.

Empirical Assessment of Trade Effects of Non-Tariff Measures: A Cross-Country

Analysis With gradual lowering of tariffs, non-tariff measures (NTMs) are perceived to be the most formidable impediments to global trade in the future. At the same time, NTMs, which were traditionally considered as non-tariff barriers, are increasingly being accepted as trade-promoting measures from the angle of its disciplining effects on streamlining trade procedures and minimising distortions in market access. This study will attempt to analyse recent data on NTMs and methodology concerning impact assessment,and empirically examine the impact of NTMs on trade across different country categories and measures.

Diversifying Technology-intensive Export Products through the Regional Process

Trends in global trade indicate that there has been proliferation of trade in technology-intensive manufacturing products. RIS has initiated a study to identify the globally dynamic products of trade, with high and medium technology intensity. India has been diversifying into technology intensive products with a fair amount of success with export of high technology and medium technology product growing faster than the total exports of India. Further, diversifying India’s exports to include more technology-intensive product groups is of vital importance. Export potential in medium and high technology-intensive products varies across different RTAs. Initial empirical evidence suggests that Indian can diversify its exports of technology-intensive products to RTAs. The European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), RCEP, Asia-Pacfic Trade Agreement (APTA), South African Development Community (SADC), East African Community (EAC), Economic Community of Western African States (ECOWAS), Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC), Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), etc., could be some important export destinations with sizeable trade opportunities.

Development Corridors in Myanmar: Implications for India

This ongoing study will make an attempt to understand the level of trade links that India has with Myanmar, through both formal and informal channels. It will carry out a detailed fact finding survey of development of new infrastructures being planned or under implementation in Myanmar and their implications for North East in general and for India in particular.

The study will examine the current status and performance of border infrastructure in North East, particularly in bordering states with Myanmar. It will investigate the strength and dimensions of the regional connectivity through North East. This study also attempts to understand: (i) resources of Myanmar to be linked through development corridors; (ii) opportunities for resource-based industries which will have strong spill over effect and generate downstream projects in Myanmar and India’s North East; and (iii) scopes and opportunities in production networks between India and Myanmar and beyond in sectors like petrochemicals, textile and clothing, rubber and other plantation crops, processed foods and marine products, etc. Finally, based on these investigations, a coherent strategy would be developed for strengthening the existing levels of trade (and also investment) links and connectivity between India and Myanmar and completing the ground work for setting up development corridors in Myanmar.

Managing the Global Financial Sector: Imperatives for the BRICS

The second BRIC Summit in 2010 leaders recognised the need for fostering and strengthening cooperation regarding the regulation and supervision of all segments, institutions and instruments of financial markets. They also underlined their commitment to improve their own national regulations, to push for the reform of the international financial regulatory system and to work closely with international standard setting institutes. The broad contours of the position taken by the BRICS leaders in respect of the governance of the financial sector may seem adequate. However, a number of occurrences since the last Summit suggest that the BRICS would need to take a more focused view of it. The study would focus on two such occurrences that merit attention by BRICS for these could affect these countries quite significantly.

The first is the strengthening of the banking sector regulations, the framework of which was adopted by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision in 2010. The second relates to the impact of the quantitative easings undertaken by the US administration. The increase in capital flows triggered by this action threatened to cause an indirect currency war. To keep their currencies competitive several major economies are taking recourse to capital controls.

ASEAN–India Maritime Transport Cooperation

ASEAN-India Centre (AIC) at RIS has been mandated by the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) to carry out a study on ASEAN–India maritime transport cooperation. A draft report has been prepared, which was presented and discussed at a national seminar organised by RIS on 31 January 2014. The report would be published soon. AIC is planning to organise an international conference on the aforesaid subject later.

ASEAN-India Air Transport Cooperation

On recommendation of ASEAN-India Eminent Persons, Leaders from all ASEAN countries attended the Commemorative Summit in 2012 which endorsed elevating ASEAN-India Dialogue Partnership to Strategic Partnership. Subsequent to this, AIC at RIS was set up to assist the Government of India to strengthen India’s cooperation with ASEAN, in its realisation of the ASEAN Community by 2015, comprising three pillars, namely, the ASEAN Political Security Community, the ASEAN Economic Community and the ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. An annual flagship report such as AIDCR would provide research support to accomplish the objectives of Strategic Partnership.

AIDCR will cover a host of cross-cutting economic issues in line with Vision Statement of ASEAN-India Commemorative Summit,which have implications on ASEAN-India relations. The chapters have been written by noted research scholars and experts. AIC would organise a workshop on AIDCR. The Report will be published soon.

Myanmar Research and Capacity Building Project

Improving capacity of human resources is essential for Myanmar’s prosperity, continued growth, and most importantly, economic integration with India. RIS along with a host of organisations of India and Myanmar with participation of Sussex University, Jadavpur University, UNESCAP, etc., has taken up this project. The objective is to train Myanmar officials and researchers on contemporary global and regional economic issues and build analytical capacity.

The first training programme would soon be held and the first phase of this programme will continue till March 2015.

Assessing Impacts of Economic Corridors

The study develops an economic geography model to be tested with sub-national data, and assesses the impact of economic (transport) corridors in India with special reference to Indian states in terms of growth. Four important corridors, connecting India with eastern neighbours, have been selected, viz. (i)BCIM-Economic Corridor, (ii) East-West Corridor (part of Golden Quadrilateral project), (iii) Trilateral Highway, and (iv) Kalandan multimodal transit transport project. The study is ongoing and expected to be completed by early 2015.